Le più grandi sciagure dell’umanità sono state originate da chi ha voluto semplificare la vita pianificando il mondo.

Giovannino Guareschi

lunedì 16 luglio 2012

Translation of the post July, 15

And if after Napolitano arrived Monti?

He quoted Giovanni Pascoli,  Pier Ferdinando Casini, down again for the comment field of the Knight (Berlusconi) : "There's something new today in the sun, or rather of old ..." The exponents of the center-left but have used less poetic terms.

Personally, we never believed for a retreat from the policy of the Knight, at least not yet, not now. There are many reasons, but mostly they are the same that brought him down twenty years ago for the first time in politics.

On November 1, 2011 (ie before the resignation of the Berlusconi government) the price of the stock on the Milan stock Mediaset was 2.5144 euros per share. Friday, July 13, 2012, the last official day of the Milan Stock Exchange earlier today, the price of a Mediaset was 1.2591 euros per share. The decline of 49.92% What's more, the institutional website of Mediaset, you can download the pdf of the presentation of data from the first 4 months of 2012, advertising revenues over the first 4 months of 2011 fell 693 to 622 million euros (minus 10%). Objection: in the same period, all stocks have declined in value addition with the crises all companies invest less in advertising. Okay, but the index of the Milan Stock Exchange November 1, 2011 this share was 14,928 and closed Friday, July 13, 2012 at an altitude of 13,714, a decrease of 8, and 13% over the same period of time has been a SKY + 25% of advertising expenditure and the collection on the Internet has also increased. Omitting also comment on all the indices, what you notice is that the net profit for the first 4 months of 2011 the Mediaset group was of 51.4 million euros while net income for the first 4 months of 2012 was 1.5 million (a decrease of 97%). Herein lies the real crux of the problem of conflict of interest. With Berlusconi out of the political scene, fell in 9 months advertising investments and the group Mediaset, which thrives on publicity, has become an industry group like the others.

The second major motivation that pushes Knight to take to the field is, in our opinion, personnel driven by ambition. Next year is the last chance for Berlusconi, because of age, to try to get elected President of the Republic. To have any chance to achieve it (objectively titanic to say the least) should have a parliament, however favor. Perhaps it will win elections, but it certainly will not have a majority in parliament strongly opposed. From here descend to the PDL all the reasoning in progress on the reform of the electoral law and the decision by Berlusconi to handle the matter personally. The Secretary appointed Alfano has proved weak in fact hold together the different souls of the PDL that still recognize the leadership of Berlusconi real movement. Berlusconi no longer on the field on PDL is intended to divide. And face the next general election divided within itself means to meet a certain defeat, because recovering the relationship with the League of Maroni will not be easy. Losing the election would be bad for Berlusconi as saying goodbye to the dream of becoming President of the Republic.

That said, what can we expect the Italians for the next month? The scenarios that can be opened are the most diverse possible and depend on political and economic variables that today no one can realistically expect. Also because in the face of a PDL that you are compacting around the old leader, there is a united center-left on the Two Chief World Systems, but divided on things to do. Perhaps the descent into the field of Berlusconi could be a help in this way also for the other side is, we'll see.

One thing is certain, the government Monti were gaining in the international guarantee of survival until 2013 that the Italian political parties who support it do not seem to want to give completely. And if it was own Monti, once no longer prime minister, the candidate of the center-left to replace Napolitano at the Quirinal?

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